According to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the Greater Horn of Africa is experiencing high temperatures and persistent drought, signaling a return of El Nino.
The report, dated March 1, stated that El Nino may develop in the coming months with low levels expected from April and strong levels from June to August.
The expected El Nino is due to a period of low rainfall, which will not be sufficient for a successful harvest, according to a weather report by the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD).
The chances of El Nino developing are currently low, at 15% between April and June, but gradually increase to 35% in May to July.
Long-term forecasts for June to August indicate a much higher chance of 55% of El Nino developing, the WMO report stated.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas warned that El Nino would lead to another increase in global temperatures, noting that the past eight-year period had been the warmest on record.
“La Nina’s cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight-year period was the warmest on record.
If we now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures,” Taalas stated.
La Nina, on the other hand, is defined as a large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific oceans.
It typically has the opposite effect on weather and climate as El Nino.
The weatherman also issued a warning that the long rainy season in Kenya, which typically runs from March to May, will have a delayed onset and receive less rainfall than usual.
David Gikungu, Director of KMD, raised concerns over food security and water supply in the country, urging farmers to prepare adequately by buying tanks to collect rainwater.
“We have to start thinking of the worst and start adapting to it.
This can only happen if we increase investment in disaster risk reduction measures.
We are looking at a situation where normal crops like maize will not give us a good harvest,” Gikungu stated.
In conclusion, the warning by the WMO and KMD should be taken seriously by the public, especially farmers in the region, to avoid a repeat of past El Nino-related disasters.
The government should also invest more in disaster risk reduction measures to mitigate the effects of the expected El Nino.
